Tories up by 5 points – CON 45(+5) LAB 26(-2) LD 17(-1)

According to Political betting:

CON 45(+5) LAB 26(-2) LD 17(-1)
So another survey with no respite for Brown?

Since last week’s budget the only pollster we’ve had voting intention numbers from has been YouGov – although we have had two surveys so it’s good that tonight another poll is published. The survey from ComRes for the Independent has shares very much in the same area.

The comparisons are on the last ComRes poll at the end of March and an enormous amount has happened in the meantime – the G20, Smeargate, the continuing MP expenses row and, of course the budget.

The big change here is the shift in the Tory share which is well above the margin of error. ComRes is showing a 19% lead over Labour which is one point higher than the the two YouGov polls.

All three surveys since the budget have Cameron’s Tories on the same number 45% and all three would produce a landslide victory for the party if repeated at a general election.

These are the worst figure for Labour from ComRes since August – the only difference between now and then is the maximum time for recovery before the general election can be held. We are in the final year and each week we get closer to when the voting has to be held.

ComRes is a telephone pollster that uses past vote weighting though the way it operates this is different from ICM and Populus. I always like to see the main data before fully committing myself to a verdict.

It’s very hard to see how Labour can break out of this spiral of decline and it’s hard, also, to predict anything other than a substantial Tory victory.

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